David

Founder
Okinawa.Org Staff
View attachment 2389

This is updated in coordination with taxi driver dates, the intervention date lines up with DoD intervention Mar 11 on travel restrictions.
Still not understanding this chart. Is it suggesting that with 250,000 infections we'll have a mortality rate of 0 (per left column), even though 1.5% is accounted for in the settings?
 

David

Founder
Okinawa.Org Staff
I still don't believe that Okinawa has the capacity to handle 50,000 hospitalizations unless we can do what New York and California are doing and treat non-COVID patients off-site.
 

David

Founder
Okinawa.Org Staff
Is it 11 or 12?
Your answer is in this source, Tony. It was 12, plus the 6 today, making 18.

The timeline here also suggests that she doesn't count because the testing occurred in another jurisdiction, false positive or not, she was still held in quarantine for a week as an infection. Also, annotated in the source.
April 4, 2020 @ 1128 -- Six people were confirmed to to have the coronavirus in Okinawa.
 

island cyclist

Active member
Update: April 4, 2020 Saturday Tokyo time: (don't worry about it, doesn't matter any more )

It's the weekend now and people are asked to stay home, but will they with all the cherry blossoms blooming now across the nation. I guess I could take the chance and see, but what for. I already know, outside the big cities, its business as usual in many places .

Here are some highlights: Most of these come from the news lines on the net.

1. This is the big one everyone is talking about. Stay tune on this. I wonder if US Pharmaceuticals is stopping the awareness of this. Japan to give virus-hit nations Avigan for free ..The Japanese government plans to provide nations hit by the coronavirus pandemic with the anti-flu drug Avigan developed by a Japanese chemical firm.
Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga told reporters on Friday that the government has so far received requests for the drug from about 30 countries.
Researchers in China say that Avigan proved effectiveness in clinical trials with people infected with the coronavirus.

2. Pelosi or whatever her name is probably.... you get my message here about #1

3. I think Trump knows about the Aviagan drug. Hopefully his hands are not tied on this one. If so, like I said, America is doomed.

4. Tokyo governor lists steps if emergency declared. Those in Tokyo, if they haven't left the city by now, it may just be a bit too late. And yes, I can see the restrictions of "sorry , no gasoline for people leaving Tokyo" You all realize there are neary 25 million or so people in Tokyo and surrounding areas. It can get real bad if people start leaving all at once.

5. Asian airlines to make further flight cuts. I knew that a few days ago. I think Thailand just announced "no entry" from some countries. Feel sorry for those that just wanted to have fun under the sun and said "screw it" I'm going anyway a month ago. Sure hope they have a credit card that still works. Hong Kong's Cathay Pacific Airways announced on Friday that it will cancel about 97 percent of its passenger flights scheduled for April.
Thai Airways International has announced that it will suspend all international passenger flights until May 31.

6. Japan: Govt., LDP agree on $2,800 handout over outbreak. I'm afraid my family doesn't qualify for it. Sure hope we qualify for the US hand out. I mentioned that we are debt free, just have the regular bills, but it still takes about 1700 USD a month to live. Can sardines, anyone.

7. Last year, 32 million foreign visitors traveled to Japan, spending roughly 45 billion dollars. Well, if you go to the tourist areas now, you'll have to walk from your hotel, seems the buses and their companies have all but closed down. It really is a depression at the moment here in many industries. Soon to be at your doorway also.

8. Americans warned to leave Japan or risk long stay as virus cases surge. I mentioned I'm stuck here indefinitely.

9. Coronavirus cases in Japan top 3,000 after record 357 new infections reported Friday. Actually it is higher today. I posted that we will be seeing like 1000 to up to 4000 cases per day, why, the govt. has only tested about 35000 people. So what's the math on that. See where it goes in time. 7 more days people and ... MIM's street talk, gosh I hope not, but people are still riding the trains and subways. Crazy I tell ya.

10. This isn't funny, but really we simply can not buy mask almost anywhere so I started making my own. www.abovetopsecret.com...

11. A government panel of experts is warning the nation’s health care system may collapse if the sharp increase in COVID-19 cases seen recently in urban areas continues, singling out Tokyo, Kanagawa, Aichi, Osaka and Hyogo as areas of particular concern.

12. New corona infection 6 people confirmed in Okinawa Prefecture. 18 cases now. Growing way too fast.

13. Update just now.






April 4, 2020 11:52

A total of 13 new infections have been announced on the 4th, including 6 in Okinawa, 4 in Fukui, 2 in Toyama, and 1 in Nagasaki. The number of people who were confirmed to be infected was 3,142, including those found during airport quarantine and those who returned home on charter aircraft. In addition, the cruise ship has 712 passengers and crew, bringing the total to 3854. On the 4th, one person died in Gifu Prefecture, killing 78 people in Japan and 11 cruise ships, bringing the total to 89 people.

Of the 3142 people who were infected in Japan,
773 in Tokyo,
346 in Osaka,
217 in Kanagawa,
210 in Chiba,
202 in Aichi,
190 in Hokkaido, 190 in
Hyogo. 175 people,
135 people in Saitama prefecture,
118 people in Fukuoka prefecture,
106 people in Kyoto prefecture,
54 people in Ibaraki prefecture,
46 people in Fukui prefecture,
40 people in Gifu prefecture,
35 people in Niigata prefecture, and 35 people in
Oita prefecture. People
: 25 in Gunma,
24 in Ishikawa,
23 in Kochi,
22 in Wakayama,
21 in Nara,
19 in Ehime, 19 in
Miyagi, 18 in Kumamoto
17 in Tochigi,
16 in Shizuoka,
14 in Shiga,
13 in Mie and Hiroshima,
11 in Aomori, 11 in Yamanashi
10 in Akita, Nagano, Nagasaki, and Toyama
9 people in Fukushima and Okayama ▽
8 people in Yamagata ▽
7 people in Yamaguchi and Miyazaki
5 people in Saga ▽
3 people in Tokushima and Kagoshima 2 people in Kagawa.
Okinawa 18 cases


In addition, a total of 14 people have returned from China via charter aircraft, including employees of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, quarantine officers, and those confirmed to have been infected by airport quarantine.

According to the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, as of the 3rd, 64 people were infected in Japan and 73 people were on cruise ships, as of March 3.

Other news.

1. Why is this: www.msn.com...

2. Italy sees signs of hope despite 766 new virus deaths .

3. Coronavirus quarantine awaits hundreds of Pacific Pathways soldiers heading home to Hawaii. FORT SHAFTER, Hawaii — Nearly 1,400 soldiers who have trained in Thailand since February as part of Pacific Pathways will soon head home to Hawaii — and to a mandated 14-day quarantine to prevent the possible spread of coronavirus.

4. WASHINGTON — The Pentagon has deployed several ships, aircraft and thousands of troops to strengthen counter-narcotics operations in the Caribbean Sea and eastern Pacific Ocean and help prevent drugs from coming into the United States, Defense Secretary Mark Esper announced Wednesday.

5. Public will be informed about positive coronavirus cases on Okinawa, US military says. CAMP FOSTER, Okinawa — The U.S. military on Okinawa is vowing transparency to its troops, their families and local civilian authorities, days after the Pentagon ordered commanders to stop publicly announcing new coronavirus cases on their bases. I guess things have changed in the last few days.

Some links for Okinawa . org members:

www.gstatic.com...
www.dph.illinois.gov...
experience.arcgis.com...
jamanetwork.com...
threadreaderapp.com...
www.westernjournal.com...
 

Redstar

New member
Still not understanding this chart. Is it suggesting that with 250,000 infections we'll have a mortality rate of 0 (per left column), even though 1.5% is accounted for in the settings?
No problem!

So right now, the chart is dialed down to "Day 50" which was for Apr, 3 2020. On this day from the model, there is..

Susceptible: 1.45 Million people not immune/contracted COVID.
Exposed: 49 individuals have been infected, but are in incubation phase.
Infectious: The amount of people with active symptoms (This number is inconsistent).
Removed: The amount of people who are immune (The number people who are now immune due to contracting COVID)
Recovered: The amount of people who have fully recovered and not showing symptoms
Hospitalized: People who show major cases and are hospitalized until they recover.
Fatalities: The amount of fatalities.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, referencing the chart posted yesterday.

Sus. - 1.45 Million have not contracted COVID
Exp. - 49 People have been exposed, and is incubating the virus.
Inf. - 9 People are showing active Symptoms.
Rem - 50 people have contracted the virus, but are either showing mild symptoms. Or have not been identified, and are currently bed ridden (most likely.. Hopefully.)
Rec. - 32 People have fully recovered, with either mild or moderate symptoms.
Hosp. - 4 People who have been admitted to the hospital due to major symptoms.
Fat. - 0 People have passed.

The Top of the chart is showing "Intervention Day" and "Transmission Reduction".

Intervention Day is the day that interventions were set in place at the highest level. (Currently dialed for the announcement of the cases with the taxi drivers)

Transmission Reduction is the amount of constant/static restrictions put into place for Okinawa. It is currently dialed in at 25%, which can be understood this way. 25 out of 100 people are currently practicing self-isolation every day.

Other Mentions:
On the chart, there's a estimate "First Death" and "Peak: Hospitalizations" The max amount of occupants we can expect at 25% Rt is 51,182 people at day 266. The first death is self explanatory, but for anyone interested in finding that information will need to do so on their own. As I don't want to coax fear with this information.

For anyone interested, the website is here.
 

Redstar

New member
And in reference to the calculator once more, this article was written in response to the USA predicted infections from Apr - Oct.

And lastly, Okinawa's Mobility Report for Feb-16 to Mar-29 from google.com (Satellite Imagery).

Here's a screenshot

OKIMOBIL.png


TLDC;
There's been a good amount of change in Transit/Parks. Though our retail and recreation hopefully decreases next week.

I'll be posting more data as I get it.

Everyone be safe out there!
 

island cyclist

Active member
No problem!

So right now, the chart is dialed down to "Day 50" which was for Apr, 3 2020. On this day from the model, there is..

Susceptible: 1.45 Million people not immune/contracted COVID.
Exposed: 49 individuals have been infected, but are in incubation phase.
Infectious: The amount of people with active symptoms (This number is inconsistent).
Removed: The amount of people who are immune (The number people who are now immune due to contracting COVID)
Recovered: The amount of people who have fully recovered and not showing symptoms
Hospitalized: People who show major cases and are hospitalized until they recover.
Fatalities: The amount of fatalities.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

So, referencing the chart posted yesterday.

Sus. - 1.45 Million have not contracted COVID
Exp. - 49 People have been exposed, and is incubating the virus.
Inf. - 9 People are showing active Symptoms.
Rem - 50 people have contracted the virus, but are either showing mild symptoms. Or have not been identified, and are currently bed ridden (most likely.. Hopefully.)
Rec. - 32 People have fully recovered, with either mild or moderate symptoms.
Hosp. - 4 People who have been admitted to the hospital due to major symptoms.
Fat. - 0 People have passed.

The Top of the chart is showing "Intervention Day" and "Transmission Reduction".

Intervention Day is the day that interventions were set in place at the highest level. (Currently dialed for the announcement of the cases with the taxi drivers)

Transmission Reduction is the amount of constant/static restrictions put into place for Okinawa. It is currently dialed in at 25%, which can be understood this way. 25 out of 100 people are currently practicing self-isolation every day.

Other Mentions:
On the chart, there's a estimate "First Death" and "Peak: Hospitalizations" The max amount of occupants we can expect at 25% Rt is 51,182 people at day 266. The first death is self explanatory, but for anyone interested in finding that information will need to do so on their own. As I don't want to coax fear with this information.

For anyone interested, the website is here.

Thanks for the link.
 
OP
Okinawa

Okinawa

Okinawa.Org Staff
Okinawa.Org Staff
Official Account
I read on nippon.com it’s now 17 today.
That is because they are excluding a person that tested for COVID-19 under another jurisdiction than Okinawa and quite possibly got a 30% false positive. Though the family disobeyed a quarantine officer to remain put in Narita, for a follow-up test or quarantine there, and the results of being positive didn't arrive until she was on the ground in Okinawa. The test taken elsewhere makes it their case and not one of Okinawa—semantics—as at that time, Okinawa had a very low caseload and they probably wanted it to stay that way.

However, she was quarantined in an Okinawa facility for infectious diseases (COVID-19) for about a week, and false-positive or not in Narita, we'll never know. It took two negative tests in Okinawa before she did, and either got better during quarantine or didn't have coronavirus at all, because they didn't test further as they couldn't at Narita due to the parent's actions.

Okinawa Times says 18 cases, but 17 attributed to Okinawa farther down in the article, as we do as well.
 

David

Founder
Okinawa.Org Staff
I haven't been following the news regarding China as it seems they never seem to increase in cases, WHO report after WHO report.

However, searching for other aspects of COVID-19, I learned that Wuhan, China came off a 2-month lockdown about a week ago. The residents are now free to travel about the country. On March 28, 2020, China’s National Health Commission attributed its 54 new cases that day to the importation of COVID-19.

That said, after the lockdown, the residents are still advised to use caution in fear of a rebound... but a rebound to what degree?

WHO situation reports are showing that other countries are having 5x more deaths than China did, with China obviously having a much higher population, to say the least.

My question now is, they're worried about imports, mostly from Chinese, but aren't concerned about it springing up China-wide and are taking it lightly; how did they do it? How can China help the world overcome this? Certainly not by sending more faulty 30% accurate tests around the world that take 15 minutes to determine a "possible positive" when America has already developed a highly accurate 5-minute test, with another company beating them with a 2-minute test.

The death tolls in some countries are about 5 times that of China.

What can China provide us, information-wise, that we don't already know to stop this from continuing for another month, two, or God forbid, more than 6 around the globe? And should we trust it as being viable without looking into the methodology of treatment prior to treating? 🤔

So many questions... no answers. I'm just hoping this all ends soon and everyone comes out well.
 

David

Founder
Okinawa.Org Staff
With the rise of COVID-19 cases in Okinawa, have to wonder how this virus will affect Shiimi on Okinawa with social distancing being urged everywhere.
I missed this message the first time and can't speak much towards shimi in general. However, I don't think it will have much of an impact at all. Tombs aren't very close together and some are large enough to have quite the social distancing necessary with many family members at that. Moreover, it's not all conducted on 1 day; there are several Sundays through April and May so even a cemetery could have very few families congregating on any particular weekend.

Some elderly may not be out, but the tradition is passed down. The cleanings, I'm sure, will still go on and people seem to be taking this more seriously now so I doubt anything would come about it as they're family and for the most part, are aware of contacts.

Sure, there could still be community spread. Though, the gatherings cannot be enforced to stop. It'll take families to decide what they will do this year as it's ultimately on them to participate or not.
 

island cyclist

Active member
A little update from a few place on this globe.

Yen market price drop
200 million users "Zoom" announce security issues
Inbound disappears in Japan: The number of travelers from China has dropped sharply, and the number of foreign visitors to Japan has already fallen 58% year-on-year as of February. Since then, entry from all over the world has been restricted or denied, and in April and May, travelers are inevitably depressed.
Vice President Kunihiro Sakota is wary that automobile production is falling worldwide at the same time.
3,858 new domestic coronaviruses (excluding cruise ships)
Of the 3858 cases confirmed in Japan,
、 1033 in Tokyo
408 in Osaka
265 in Kanagawa
260 260 in Chiba,
228 in Aichi,
Hyogo 203,
Hokkaido, 194,
Saitama, 185,
Fukuoka, 162,
Kyoto, 125,
Ibaraki, 64,
Gifu, 58,
Fukui, 53 、
43 people in Ishikawa prefecture
35 people in Niigata prefecture
33 people in Kochi prefecture
32 people in Oita prefecture
26 people in Gunma prefecture
25 people in Nara prefecture, 25 people in
Wakayama prefecture
23 in Miyagi ,
21 in Ehime ,
20 in Kumamoto (getting more every day )
18 in Shiga
17 in Tochigi and Shizuoka
16 in Okinawa and Fukushima,
Hiroshima Prefecture has 15 people,
Yamanashi Prefecture 14 people,
Yamagata Prefecture, Mie Prefecture, 13 people,
Nagano Prefecture, Yamaguchi Prefecture, Nagasaki Prefecture, 12 people,
Aomori Prefecture, Akita Prefecture, Okayama Prefecture, 11 people,
Toyama Prefecture, Miyazaki Prefecture, 10 people,
Saga Prefecture 8 people,
Tokushima Prefecture, Kagoshima Prefecture, 3 people,
Kagawa Prefecture 2 people.

In addition, 14 people returned from China on charter aircraft,
80 80 people including employees of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare, quarantine officers, and those who were confirmed to be infected by airport quarantine.
Japan: Hyogo Prefecture is planning to resume prefectural schools on schedule from August 8 after taking measures to prevent infection, such as "staggered commutes."
Starting in the new semester, students attending prefectural high schools in Hyogo Prefecture, who have been scheduled to resume their programs as scheduled, have begun signing on the Internet asking them to continue school closures, saying they are worried about the spread of infection.
Part of the French wholesale market with more than 8,000 dead in temporary morgue
The Rungis market is the world's largest wholesale market, with a site area of 234 hectares, equivalent to approximately 50 Tokyo Domes.

According to government announcements and US research institutes, the number of infected people by country or region was:
324,052 in the United States , 130,759 in
Spain,
128,948 in Italy, and 91,714 in
Germany. people
China 81,669 people
France 70,478 people
Iran is 58,226 people
United Kingdom is 47,806 people
has become.
The number of people who died was
15,887 in Italy , 12,418 in
Spain,
9,180 in the United States,
8078 in France, 4,934 in the
United Kingdom,
3603 in Iran
,
and 3,329 in China .
U.S. presidential election
Opposition seeks to retake power in U.S. presidential election Former Democrat candidate Vice President Biden said to Trump, who said he would not wear a mask in response to the new coronavirus, `` should follow the expert opinion.
In India, to prevent the spread of the new coronavirus, the entire territory has been closed since last month, and going out is prohibited except for grocery shopping.
The Tokyo Metropolitan Government announced on the 5th that 143 new coronaviruses were infected, the largest number confirmed in one day in Tokyo, and 7 deaths were confirmed.

The number of infected people who died in Tokyo is now 30.
Europe saw further signs of hope in the coronavirus outbreak Sunday as Italy’s daily death toll was at its lowest in more than two weeks and its infection curve was finally on a downward slope. In Spain, new deaths dropped for the third straight day.
in Italy one can be fined €1,000 or slung in jail for up to three months if I leave my village without good reason
U.S. troops worldwide must wear masks, and sew their own if necessary, if they cannot maintain “social distancing” standards to protect against the coronavirus, the Pentagon announced Sunday.
The IRS plans to send electronic payments as soon as late next week to more than 115 million Americans as part of the $2 trillion coronavirus law, a week sooner than expected, according to a plan circulated internally Wednesday.
However, $30 million in paper checks for millions of other Americans won't start being sent out until April 24, because the government lacks their banking information. And some of those checks won't reach people until September, the document shows, underscoring the reality that many Americans could have to wait five months to receive their checks.
 

Sterlin34

New member
I haven't been following the news regarding China as it seems they never seem to increase in cases, WHO report after WHO report.

However, searching for other aspects of COVID-19, I learned that Wuhan, China came off a 2-month lockdown about a week ago. The residents are now free to travel about the country. On March 28, 2020, China’s National Health Commission attributed its 54 new cases that day to the importation of COVID-19.

That said, after the lockdown, the residents are still advised to use caution in fear of a rebound... but a rebound to what degree?

WHO situation reports are showing that other countries are having 5x more deaths than China did, with China obviously having a much higher population, to say the least.

My question now is, they're worried about imports, mostly from Chinese, but aren't concerned about it springing up China-wide and are taking it lightly; how did they do it? How can China help the world overcome this? Certainly not by sending more faulty 30% accurate tests around the world that take 15 minutes to determine a "possible positive" when America has already developed a highly accurate 5-minute test, with another company beating them with a 2-minute test.

The death tolls in some countries are about 5 times that of China.

What can China provide us, information-wise, that we don't already know to stop this from continuing for another month, two, or God forbid, more than 6 around the globe? And should we trust it as being viable without looking into the methodology of treatment prior to treating? 🤔

So many questions... no answers. I'm just hoping this all ends soon and everyone comes out well.
Nothing coming from the CCP in terms of news about the virus is true. It is lies upon lies upon lies. China in Focus - NTD News is a great news source if you want to know the truth about what is going on in China. They have many citizen reporters or netizens as they call them that sneak information, photos, and videos out of the country. Just awful stuff but people need to know the truth about the CCP and their lies. A Chinese doctor mentioned treating patients with chloroquine and azithromycin back in early February but was quickly silenced. An evil regime keeping vital information from the rest of the world as far as their true numbers concerning infections and deaths. It is estimated that at least 45,000 urns were given to family members that last 4 days in Hubei by the funeral homes there.
 

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